KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosSin actividad de trading
Datos del 8 sept 2026, 22:15 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual
Above $500 billion 0%Líder entre 8 opciones
Calidad del mercado
39 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconocidaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
26 ago 26, 19:00 UTC4 feb 30, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US trade deficit for 2026?
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2027
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2032
KalshiUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029.
Mercados abiertos
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 77,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,5 mil €
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US trade deficit for 2029?
- Kalshi cotiza Above $500 billion al 0% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US trade deficit for 2029?
- Está previsto que US trade deficit for 2029 se resuelva el 4 de febrero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US trade deficit for 2029?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.