KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosSin actividad de trading
Datos del 8 sept 2026, 17:50 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual
Above $500 billion 0%Líder entre 8 opciones
Calidad del mercado
31 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
—
Liquidez desconocidaSpread
7.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
26 ago 26, 15:30 UTC4 feb 28, 13:25 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Reglas
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027.
Mercados abiertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 323,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 25,3 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 523 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 22 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 resultados más
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,4 mil €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US trade deficit for 2027?
- Kalshi cotiza Above $500 billion al 0% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US trade deficit for 2027?
- Está previsto que US trade deficit for 2027 se resuelva el 4 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US trade deficit for 2027?
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.