KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before Jan 1, 2028 84%+8.0ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
47 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
525,1 €
Liquidez
2,4 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
6.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
14 may 26, 2:00 UTC1 oct 26, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Mercados abiertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 18,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volumen total
- 916 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 863,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1 mil €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
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- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the FDA approve CagriSema??
- Kalshi cotiza Before Jan 1, 2028 al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the FDA approve CagriSema??
- Está previsto que Will the FDA approve CagriSema? se resuelva el 1 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the FDA approve CagriSema??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.