KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before Oct 1, 2027 71%-15.0ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
33 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
158,7 €
Liquidez
179,2 €
Baja liquidezSpread
8.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
19 ago 26, 22:001 oct 27, 3:59
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
Reglas
If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Mercados abiertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt96%
- Yes+0.3pt4%
- Volumen total
- 15,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 14,5 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300098%
- Above 4000+2.0pt87%
- Above 6000+4.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 807,4 mil €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt69%
- June 30,-9.0pt12%
- Volumen total
- 40,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 mil €
POLYMARKETHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- Fewer than 20+14.0pt39.3%
- 20 to 34+17.0pt37.4%
- 35 to 49-12.0pt14.9%
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- South Sudan56%
- Burundi35%
- Rwanda30%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 293 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,2 mil €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 resultados más
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
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- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by which date?
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- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Kalshi cotiza Before Oct 1, 2027 al 71% a fecha de 24 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Está previsto que Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)? se resuelva el 1 de octubre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.