Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí 78%
Calidad del mercado
32 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
775,4 €
Baja liquidezTraders
9
Comments
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Reglas
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Comparacion de fuentes de prediccion
Referencia CoinRithm 47% · 2 plataformas · 31 pt de dispersion entre venues
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Futuur cotiza Yes al 78% a fecha de 25 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Está previsto que Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- Futuur liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Will 2026 be the warmest year on record??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en ForecastEx, Manifold Markets.