Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí 89%+1.0pt
Sí 89%+1.0ptCalidad del mercado
33 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
16,6 €
Liquidez
819 €
Baja liquidezTraders
11
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 minuto
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will 2035 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2027 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
ForecastExWill 2030 be the warmest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be Denver's warmest year ever?
Manifold MarketsWhere will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
2 plataformas cotizan actualmente este mercado. La probabilidad de referencia entre plataformas de CoinRithm para Referencia CoinRithm es del 65%. La dispersión entre plataformas es de unos 49 puntos porcentuales.
Referencia CoinRithm 65% · 2 plataformas · 49 pt de dispersion entre venues
