¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Where will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)??

Manifold Markets cotiza Warmest October on record (1st) al 25% a fecha de 11 de octubre de 2026.

Where will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?

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Warmest October on record (1st) 25%

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9 oct 26, 19:09 UTC12 nov 26, 23:59 UTC

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How will October 2026 rank among all Octobers in the Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature record?

Resolution source: the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) monthly climate bulletin for October 2026 (published at climate.copernicus.eu, usually in the first ~10 days of November).
If the bulletin states the rank ("warmest October on record", "second-warmest October", etc.), that statement decides.
If the bulletin does not state a rank, I compute it from the ERA5 monthly global-mean surface air temperature anomaly that C3S publishes (Climate Pulse series, https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/), comparing October 2026 against every earlier October.
Warmest October on record (1st)
the named outcome