Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
0.3% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 96%
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$38.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
95.0% / 96.9%
Spread
2.0%
Tight spread7d Change
+2.4%
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 17, 26, 10:26 PMAug 15, 26, 6:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes96%
Volume trend
$3.5kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
- Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
- This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC).