PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 9:52 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 4:06 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
↓ $204100%
↓ $20882%
↓ $21285%
↑ $24014%
↑ $22410%
↓ $2005%
↑ $2281%
↑ $2204%
↑ $2368%
↑ $2324%
↓ $1925%
↑ $21613%
↑ $212100%
↑ $216100%
↓ $216100%
↑ $20850%
↑ $21250%
↓ $18810%
↓ $1848%
↑ $212Won
↑ $216Won
↓ $204Won
↓ $208Won
↓ $212Won
↓ $216Won
↑ $208Lost
↑ $212Lost
↑ $216Lost
↑ $220Lost
↑ $224Lost
↑ $228Lost
↑ $232Lost
↑ $236Lost
↑ $240Lost
↓ $184Lost
↓ $188Lost
↓ $192Lost
↓ $196Lost
↓ $200Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2027 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next 6 months?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2027 CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform Nvidia / NVDA over the next year?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.