This market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Aug 11, 2026, 5:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 11, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 100%+4.5pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+7.0 pts
Market data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 11:28 PMJan 10, 27, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.
- If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
