Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

1.0% (24h)One-OffWeather7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 81%-0.0%

Market quality

71 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$50

Liquidity

$3.3K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

80.0% / 82.0%

Spread

2.5%

Tight spread

7d Change

-5.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 9, 26, 11:31 PMJan 10, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes81%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

1.0% (24h)One-OffWeather7mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 81%-0.0%

Market quality

71 / 100

Medium quality

24h Volume

$50

Liquidity

$3.3K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

80.0% / 82.0%

Spread

2.5%

Tight spread

7d Change

-5.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 9, 26, 11:31 PMJan 10, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes81%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

$4.2K

2: 63%

POLYMARKET

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MANIFOLD MARKETS

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Engineered pandemic: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?

$97.5

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$47.1

Genevieve: 4%

KALSHI

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$43.1

Yes: 25%

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,702.01+1.68%

EthereumETH$1,655.40+1.08%

SolanaSOL$65.06+0.76%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+0.94%

XRPXRP$1.12-0.20%

BNBBNB$596.31+1.29%

Rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record.

If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.