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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. US government rescinds Claude Fable 5 foreigner ban by…?
US government rescinds Claude Fable 5 foreigner ban by…?

US government rescinds Claude Fable 5 foreigner ban by…?

7.5% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffAIUS Politics16d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
June 30
June 30 40%+7.5%
Market quality

36 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$424.3

Liquidity

$1.3K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

35.0% / 45.0%

Spread

28.6%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jun 14, 26, 12:36 AMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

June 3040%

Rules

On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals.
  • A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals.
  • Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.

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Rules

On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
  • A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals.
  • A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals.
  • Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.