PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 0%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$280K
Liquidity
$370.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.3% / 0.4%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-17.6%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 6:26 PMJul 7, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes0%
Also available on Manifold Markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket]
2d
4.8%
95.2%
Community forecast40 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$10K
24h Vol$421.8
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.5k99.2%Nokukasistakenyesterday
$23.8k99.0%No0x0c0e…434e2d ago
$9.5k98.0%No0x9631…89a13d ago
$4.5k95.0%Nomr.ozi3d ago
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.