PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityJune 30 4%+3.7%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$621.3K
Liquidity
$19.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.1% / 5.7%
Spread
171.4%
Wide spread7d Change
+3.5%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
May 15, 26, 8:30 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
June 304%
Related Markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$306.8KYes: 0%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
$186.8KDecember 31: 46%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
$157.5KJune 30: 2%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
$5.3KYes: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?
$500Yes: 18.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Hormuz vessel attack lifts oil as Polymarket puts July 15 normalcy at 29.5%Blockchain.News
Hormuz strike jolts Iran-entry market as Polymarket cuts Trump odds to 15%Blockchain.NewsHormuz ship hit lifts risk as Polymarket normal-traffic odds jump to 55%Blockchain.News
Inspection dispute cools US-Iran deal odds to 22.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
Ras Laffan blast spotlights Gulf shipping as Polymarket puts 20+ Hormuz at 99%Blockchain.News
Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are not allowed to use certain military bases within Saudi Arabia, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft, such as only aircraft involved in a specified U.S. military operation, will qualify.
- A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count.
- A consensus of credible reporting that Saudi Arabia has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.