Current implied probability
Thorsten Frei 98%+0.6%Leader of 34 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$836.3
Liquidity
$87.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
97.6% / 98.7%
Spread
1.1%
Tight spread7d Change
+56.1%
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 18, 26, 9:08 PMJul 29, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Thorsten Frei98%
Volume trend
$836Jul 207d of dataJul 26
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On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).
- This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.
- The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.
- Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.
- If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.