PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probabilityJuly 15 100%+78.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.8K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 7, 26, 11:15 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
August 31100%
July 15100%
July 12100%
July 31100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Large trades
$1.2k81.5%Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31? — Yesbalthazaryesterday
$1.8k83.3%Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? — YesLabubuBot9000yesterday
Volume trend
$25.8kJul 85d of dataJul 12
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market.
- Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.
- Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.