PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 78%+27.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$112.5K
Liquidity
$90.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 12.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 25, 26, 11:22 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 3178%
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
- Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market.
- Attacks by proxy forces (i.e.
- Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.