Current implied probability
15%+ 83.7%+4.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
$9.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 89.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
+21.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jul 4, 26, 12:57 AMJul 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
15%+87%
Volume trend
$100Jul 425d of dataJul 28
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The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.
- The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.