PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 65-89
Resolved: Sep 5, 2026, 6:03 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 6, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
90-1140%
115-1392%
65-89100%
<403%
40-646%
65-89Won
<40Lost
40-64Lost
90-114Lost
115-139Lost
140-164Lost
165-189Lost
190-214Lost
215-239Lost
240+Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.