What are the current odds for Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52.4% as of October 27, 2026.

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 52.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Stale

Aug 23, 26, 6:50 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

I've submitted my PhD thesis on modelling Transformers/LLMs as approximations of Solomonoff Induction, now I need a job.

Lots of AI safety orgs offer a bonus for anyone referring a successful candidate - one place I've applied to offers $5,000.
Refer me, claim the money and some play money!
Resolves YES if I accept a paid full-time position (not necessarily permanent) from someone referring me.
The referrer isn't required to claim a referral bonus, but hey, why not try? (I've already applied to a few places, so you might not be able to claim them there; if you want to know if I've already applied somewhere, DM me)
Resolves NO if I don't accept a position or the offer was made without a referral.