PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability2.4% 50%+13.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$500
Liquidity
$15.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 31.0%
Spread
93.8%
Wide spread7d Change
-4.5%
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 5:45 PMAug 12, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
2.4%50%
Compare venues· 2.4%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall84% match · auto | High | 98% | — | $498.7 | $30.1K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | Medium | 50% | — | $500 | $15.9K | 14 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
1.0%17d
+1.0%98%
86%
80%
+12 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$68.9K
24h Vol$498.7
KALSHIRules
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$500Jul 1512d of dataJul 26
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This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
- The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
- Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%).
- Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.