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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

One-OffGeopoliticsChina6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 21%
Market quality

72 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$17.8

Liquidity

$54.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

20.0% / 21.0%

Spread

5.0%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Nov 13, 25, 11:20 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes21%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
  • Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
  • Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.