Current implied probability
4.6-4.9% 84%+0.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$51.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.5% / 3.4%
Spread
36.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.8%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Apr 20, 26, 9:37 PMJul 16, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Selected outcome
4.6-4.9%84%
Also available on Kalshi
China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026
6.0%1mo
+6.0%90%
-8.0%84%
-6.0%53%
+12 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$65.8
24h Vol$2.1
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
- Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market.
- Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.