Current community forecast
No 94.6%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 23, 24, 11:37 PM UTCOct 24, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsIs Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PolymarketRules
I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.
- Tyler Cowen (2024), https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/10/does-it-matter-who-satoshi-was.html
- What matters is the state of affairs when this market closes.
- I have entered the close date as 2026-10-24 and will not change it.
- I will use my judgement to determine whether “we” know who Satoshi is.
- Public evidence available prior to market close that convinces me is sufficient.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+1.4pt100%
- 68,000100%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $637.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.6pt98%
- $25M+1.1pt96%
- $50M+1.5pt88%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETEthereum above ___ on September 9?
- 1,900100%
- 2,000+0.5pt100%
- 2,100+0.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? resolve?
- Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? is scheduled to resolve on October 24, 2026.
- How is Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I believe that in less than two years we will know who Satoshi is.