Current community forecast
Yes 66.3%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 23, 7:06 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
Manifold MarketsSelf-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsTesla Full Self-Driving approved for use in Germany in what year?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
In order to count as "full self driving", it must be at least as safe as a normal, reasonably cautious human driver averaging over all situations, proportional to their likelyhood.
- In other words, assuming I'm an average driver (and not drunk, etc.) and am not irrationally scared of self-driving cars, I would feel no less safe saying "drive from my house in Florida to this hotel in Atlanta" than I would doing the drive myself.
- Must be available to the public, but doesn't have to be cheap.
- In order to count as "self-sustaining fusion", it needs to either:
- Actually be self-sustaining; i.e. they could turn off power to the reactor and it would keep going.
- Output no less electricity than it took in, even if that electricity is not what's being used to power the reactor.
