Will we discover extraterrestrial life (past or present) anywhere in the solar system by EOY 2100?
One-OffSpace
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.6%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 24, 11:49 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The search for extraterrestrial life in our solar system is actively ongoing, with several promising locations under investigation.
- Mars has shown evidence of past liquid water and organic molecules, while moons like Europa (Jupiter) and Enceladus (Saturn) harbor subsurface oceans that could potentially support life.
- Current missions like NASA's Perseverance rover on Mars and planned missions to these icy moons are specifically designed to search for biosignatures of past or present life.
- Finding extraterrestrial and indigenous life inside our own solar system has huge implications on the probability of abiogenesis, the Drake equation, and the fermi paradox.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if:
