Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.4%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 25, 23, 10:38 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves positively if, by 2030-12-31, 75% or more of US residential homes are sold without an intermediary (a realtor).
- Online exchanges do not count as an intermediary for purposes of this market, except if they employ human brokers that typically spend 2 hours or more on each transaction.
- I will use whatever sources seem most credible in resolving this market.
- A few example sources that suggest residential real estate is not currently disintermediated are the National Association of Realtors (which says 85%+ of 2022 residential real estate transactions were brokered), the Close (which appears to be a real estate newspaper and says that 92% of residential real estate transactions were brokered), and also personal experience, where most people I know use a realtor when selling their house.
- If several respectable news organizations report that over 75% of US residential homes are sold sans intermediary, that would be pretty convincing for me to resolve positively.
