Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 56.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 10:44 PM UTCMar 31, 30, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will uranium spot price (15m trailing avg, 3m lag) exceed $95/lb by Mar 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill uranium spot price (15m trailing avg, 3m lag) exceed $105/lb by Mar 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill uranium spot price (15m trailing avg, 3m lag) exceed $100/lb by Mar 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill uranium spot price (15m trailing avg, 3m lag) exceed $115/lb by Mar 2031?
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PolymarketIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the uranium spot price averaged over the last 15 months (excluding the last 3 months) exceeds $110 per pound U3O8 by 2030-03-31.
- Measurement methodology:
- Calculate average uranium spot price during the 15-month period ending 3 months before the settlement date
- For 2030-03-31 settlement: measure average price from 2029-10-02 to 2030-12-31
- Use daily spot price data from authoritative uranium market sources
- "Spot price" means uranium oxide (U3O8) spot price, not long-term contract prices
