Current community forecast
No 80%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 23, 6:07 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Tim Urban, the creator of waitbutwhy.com
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
- IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
Open markets
SportsPOLYMARKETLoL: Invictus Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
- Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)+79.0pt100%
- Game 1 Winner+43.0pt100%
- Game 2 Winner+42.5pt100%
+60 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.9M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz-2.0pt56%
- Alexander Zverev+7.0pt28%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Real Madrid13.3%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R14.1%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $84.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MIL+44.0pt99%
- CHC-46.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKETGenoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- Ferrari Set 2 Winner59%
- Ferrari Set 1 Winner58%
- Ferrari Match O/U 22.557%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Sanchez Jover vs Bueno
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox (Sep 7, 2026)
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- US Open Women's Singles Winner
- LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Playoffs
- de Stefano vs Vedder
- MLB: Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles (Sep 7, 2026)
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Tim Urban create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tim Urban, the creator of waitbutwhy.com