Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (96.4%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 11:13 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes96.4%
No3.5999999999999943%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027
Manifold MarketsWill the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?
Manifold MarketsWill we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?
Manifold MarketsHow many traders will I have by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If it gets under 100 traders by the end of September, this market resolves yes.
- If it gets 100 or more, it resolves no.
- This happens to be farming the unique trader bonus, but I intend for it to be more of an experiment.
