Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAt least 2,000 90.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 10:34 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders?
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Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLife360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiSpotify total monthly active users in 2026
KalshiSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiRules
This resolves according to the readout the monthly tab for the active traders chart of the Manifold stats page at the end of 2027.
- An "active trader" is described as of market creation as
- An active trader is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question.
- If that definition changes, I will do my best to either get an accurate number in the spirit of the original meaning, or N/A the market.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices At least 2,000 at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027 resolve?
- Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Manifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This resolves according to the readout the monthly tab for the active traders chart of the Manifold stats page at the end of 2027.