Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 59.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 23, 5:26 AM UTCSep 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Either fiction, biographical, or documentary.
- So for instance, a Klaus Teuber biopic or a Catan-themed gameshow would count.
- If it's a movie it has to be feature length though.
- Leaked tv pilots don't count as tv shows.
- But they might count as feature films if they're long enough.
- Edit: If it is a documentary it has to be either approved by Teuber's family, the game's publisher, or critically acclaimed.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
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- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? resolve?
- Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? is scheduled to resolve on September 2, 2030.
- How is Will there be a Settlers of Catan movie or tv show before September 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Either fiction, biographical, or documentary.