Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.2%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 24, 12:29 AM UTCJan 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?
Manifold MarketsWill there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
Will resolve primarily using https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/
- If there are websites errors or any other type of doubtful result, more direct sources will be used to estimate the number of alive people in space.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2030.
- How is Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve primarily using https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/