Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027?
Business & CorporateOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 4, 25, 4:14 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Background: This market attempts to measure whether AI will be winner-take-all.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $555.4K
- 24h Vol
- $499.3K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+13.0pt68.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt30.4%
- 90-114-3.5pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt17.1%
- 200-219-1.0pt16.2%
- 160-179+2.0pt15.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIIllinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- Above 87.5 TWh97%
- Above 90.0 TWh+1.0pt96%
- Above 92.5 TWh+3.0pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.2K
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $220.4K
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Largest Company end of September?
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will the top company by market cap be at least five times larger than the next largest company by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background: This market attempts to measure whether AI will be winner-take-all.