Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.4%
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18
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 5 minutes ago
Mar 21, 24, 8:02 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExRules
Heathrow has successfully obtained permission to build a third runway, and post COVID recovery means passenger numbers have returned to close to theoretical capacity so there is reason to build it.
- However, funding for the runway is not in place, and a cost of £15 billion+ would need to be financed.
- Will construction begin before 2030? Or will Heathrow go back to the drawing board and come up with a new plan that isn't building a runway in the position proposed (in which case this resolves NO)?
