Will an aeroplane take off from Heathrow's Third Runway before these dates?
19.2 pts (24h)One-OffBusiness & Corporate3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
1st January 2045 52.1%-19.2ptLeader of 5 outcomes
1st January 2045 52.1%-19.2ptForecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-28.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 30, 25, 3:49 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Definition of a third runway: any permanent runway structure built at Heathrow Airport which is NOT Runway 09L/27R OR Runway 09R/27L and which does NOT function as e.g. a temporary replacement for the existing two runways while they are not in service.
- That is, all three runways must be in active service for this to count.
- Each answer resolves NO if no aeroplane has taken off from a third runway at Heathrow Airport by 00:01 on that date.
- On the date that any aeroplane takes off from a third runway, all outstanding answers resolve YES.