Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?
CryptoOne-OffTrade PolicyBusiness & CorporateAIFedPoliticsUS PoliticsEquities2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.8%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 9:09 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or above 8,000 at any point during 2026.
- This market resolves NO if the S&P 500 never reaches 8,000 during 2026.
- Resolution will be verified using the official S&P 500 closing price from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or Yahoo Finance.
- The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on January 2, 2026, requiring approximately a 16.6% gain to reach 8,000.
- Wall Street strategists project an average 10.2% gain for 2026, though Oppenheimer is most bullish, seeing the index rising 17.8% to 8,100, while Bank of America expects the benchmark to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026.