Will the International Court of Justice rule in favor of Guyana in their case against Venezuela?
Latin AmericaOne-Off7y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:02 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 90.5%
Yes 90.5%Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleDec 6, 23, 2:05 PM UTCJan 2, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
In 2018, Guyana sued Venezuela at the International Court of Justice to resolve their dispute, initiated in 1962, caused by Venezuela's assertion that the 1899 Arbitral Award defining their border is null and void.
- The Court has already ruled it has jurisdiction on the matter, based on the 1966 Geneva Agreement between the two countries and the former colonial power, the UK.
- This market resolves to YES if the Arbitral Award of 1899 is valid, maintaining the present border, and NO otherwise.
- It is immaterial to this market whether Venezuela obeys the decision of the Court.
