Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?
One-OffSociety & CultureGeopoliticsMacro & Economy2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 23, 11:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Worldcoin signups > 30 million people by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Australia have more than 30 million people according to the 2031 Australian Census?
Manifold MarketsIn which census will the California population first exceed 40 million?
Manifold MarketsWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,500,000 million cubic feet in August 2026?
ForecastExWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,400,000 million cubic feet in December 2026?
ForecastExWill US Natural Gas Production exceed 3,350,000 million cubic feet in August 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market aims to predict whether the foreign population of Japan will reach or exceed 5 million people for the 2025 census.
- In 2020, the foreign population in Japan is approximately 2.76 million.
- Despite Japan's historically restrictive immigration policy, there are several factors that may contribute to an increase in the foreign population.
- This chart shows the growth of the foreign population of Japan between 1950 and 2020:
- [image]Demographic Challenges: Japan's aging population and declining birthrate have resulted in a shrinking workforce, which could push the government to relax immigration policies to fill the labor shortage.
- To maintain economic growth and social welfare, Japan might need to rely on foreign workers to supplement its workforce, especially in industries such as healthcare, construction, and agriculture.
