Current community forecast
Yes 71%
Forecasters
175
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 24, 4:52 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWill Supergirl (2026) make back its budget + 50 million dollars?
Manifold MarketsWill the first person to walk on Mars be an Atheist?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES.
- Must still be alive.
- Market open until it happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
- $73,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $793.6K
- 24h Vol
- $792.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- 40-64+9.9pt59.2%
- 65-89+31.6pt38.8%
- 90-114+0.8pt2%
+7 more outcomes
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No74.1%
- Yes25.9%
- Total Vol
- $350.9K
- 24h Vol
- $345.3K
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.1pt13.9%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99+0.4pt12%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.7pt12%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+4.0pt24.5%
- 200-219+10.0pt24.5%
- 220-239+7.0pt15.7%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $77,100 or above99%
- $77,000 or above99%
- $76,900 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187K
- 24h Vol
- $178K
- BTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- Where will it rain on Sep 14, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 14, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 14, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? resolve?
- Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2040.
- How is Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES.