Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastsafely returns to Earth 93.9%Leader of 35 outcomes
Forecasters
57
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 24, 5:06 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill the next person to walk on the moon be American?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.
- Add your own.
- Should be easily verified (ie nothing like "they love pineapple on pizza").
- Intention is "what will be the properties of Neil Armstrong 2.0".
- In general, all items are taken to be "as publicly known, at the time of the landing".
- So if the astronaut is trans but stealth and this has somehow not come up, it would resolve 'NO' for 'the named outcome'.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,500 or above99%
- $74,250 or above99%
- $73,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $793.6K
- 24h Vol
- $792.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
- 40-64+9.9pt59.2%
- 65-89+31.6pt38.8%
- 90-114+0.8pt2%
+7 more outcomes
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No74.1%
- Yes25.9%
- Total Vol
- $350.9K
- 24h Vol
- $345.3K
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.1pt13.9%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99+0.4pt12%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+1.7pt12%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+4.0pt24.5%
- 200-219+10.0pt24.5%
- 220-239+7.0pt15.7%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 14, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $77,100 or above99%
- $77,000 or above99%
- $76,900 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187K
- 24h Vol
- $178K
- BTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - Daily
- Where will it rain on Sep 14, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 14, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 14, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 14, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets prices safely returns to Earth at 94% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES] resolve?
- What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.