Current community forecast
No 71.2%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 24, 5:44 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
