What are the current odds for Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets prices No at 81.6% as of October 28, 2026.

Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 81.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Feb 2, 24, 5:45 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2100

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision reported.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.00°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.