Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
TechOne-Off9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.8%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 4:36 PM UTCAug 6, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, by August 1, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is providing public robotaxi rides with no human safety monitor or driver present in the vehicle, in at least 10 distinct U.S. metropolitan areas other than Austin, TX.
- As of market creation (August 6, 2026), 5 metros beyond Austin already qualify: Dallas, Houston, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando.
- Phoenix and Las Vegas have been publicly planned since early 2026 but have not yet launched unsupervised service as of market creation.
- Requirements for a city to count: 1.
- Rides must have zero human safety monitor or driver physically present in the vehicle (a city where rides still require an in-car human monitor, such as the San Francisco Bay Area under current California law, does not count). 2.
- Service must be generally available to public riders, not an employee-only or invite-only internal pilot. 3.