When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London?
One-OffTech9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLater than June 2027 37%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 26, 12:06 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWill Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
"When will the first ride-hailing trip with no human in the driver's seat take place in London, under an APS permit?"
- Resolves to the date of the first publicly confirmed trip where:
- A member of the public (non-employee of the operator) books and rides in a road vehicle on a public road within the Greater London Authority boundary
- No human is in the vehicle to monitor the vehicle i.e. no safety drivers or safety attendants
- The trip is a point-to-point ride-hailing service
- The operator holds a valid APS permit granted by the Secretary of State under Part 5 of the Automated Vehicles Act 2024
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London??
- Manifold Markets prices Later than June 2027 at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London? resolve?
- When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is When will the first fully driverless commercial ride-hailing trip take place in London? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "When will the first ride-hailing trip with no human in the driver's seat take place in London, under an APS permit?"