Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026?
RegulationQuarterlyTech2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 1:50 AM UTCNov 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q2 2026 was 1.4% (GAAP income from operations of $398 million on total revenues of $28.24 billion), down from 4.1% in Q2 2025 and 4.2% in Q1 2026.
- This market asks whether Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q3 2026 comes in below 2%.
- Resolution source: Tesla's official Q3 2026 financial results, specifically the "Operating margin (GAAP)" figure in Tesla's Q3 2026 Update deck posted at ir.tesla.com and the corresponding financial statements furnished in Tesla's Form 8-K (and, if needed, the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q filed with the SEC).
- Resolves YES if Tesla's reported GAAP operating margin for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 is below 2.00%.
- Resolves NO if it is 2.00% or higher.
- If Tesla reports a rounded figure of exactly 2.0%, the market resolves on the underlying arithmetic: GAAP income from operations divided by total revenues for Q3 2026, taken from Tesla's reported consolidated statement of operations, resolving YES only if that ratio is strictly below 2.00%.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026? resolve?
- Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 20, 2026.
- How is Will Tesla report a GAAP operating margin below 2% for a second straight quarter in Q3 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tesla's GAAP operating margin for Q2 2026 was 1.4% (GAAP income from operations of $398 million on total revenues of $28.24 billion), down from 4.1% in Q2 2025 and 4.2% in Q1 2026.