Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
One-OffTech3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 79.9%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 1, 26, 4:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
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Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla.
- They are either not able to or not required to drive it themselves.
- Dec 3, 7:12pm: Will Tesla provide an autonomous driving service before the end of 2026 → Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
- Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve YES until the service has a larger number of cars operating in the area.
- A small pilot program where most hail attempts result in a safety driver does not meet the resolution requirements for an autonomous service.
- Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, wait times must stay under 20 minutes over a practically broad area to count as the service being available.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 resolve?
- Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The service allows anyone within some area (possibly a restricted area, possibly not) to hail an autonomous Tesla.