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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 68.8%
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281
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 25, 8:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Elon Musk has been very explicit in promising a robotaxi launch in Austin in June with unsupervised full self-driving (FSD).
- We'll give him some leeway on the timing and say this counts as a YES if it happens by the end of August.
- As of April 2025, Tesla seems to be testing this with employees and with supervised FSD and doubling down on the public Austin launch.
- PS: A big monkey wrench no one anticipated when we created this market is how to treat the passenger-seat safety monitors.
- See FAQ9 for how we're trying to handle that in a principled way.
- Tesla is very polarizing and I know it's "obvious" to one side that safety monitors = "supervised" and that it's equally obvious to the other side that the driver's seat being empty is what matters.
