Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 23, 7:33 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This question is defining 'bullfighting' as 'an event where in the normal course of events a bull is killed in the ring'.
- There are other styles of bullfighting, notably Portuguese, where the bull is attacked in the ring and slaughtered outside of it after the event.
- Because this question is trying to measure the likelihood of Spain making a national move on this issue, I am adopting a more realistic interpretation of what a 'ban' might look like.
- This will resolve YES if Spain bans bullfighting where the bull is killed in the ring by close of question time.
- It will resolve NO otherwise.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2035? resolve?
- Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2034.
- How is Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question is defining 'bullfighting' as 'an event where in the normal course of events a bull is killed in the ring'.