Current community forecast
No 96.7%
Forecasters
175
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 23, 6:16 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2028?
Manifold MarketsStarship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
"To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.
- It doesn't have to be a landing; an orbit around the planet or a close flyby also qualify.
- However simply going out past Mars's orbital distance from the sun, while not actually approaching the planet itself, does not count.
- "Send" means that a rocket lifted off the launchpad for that target.
- A mission that is simply scheduled for the future does not count.
- A mission that lifts off and then blows up 2 feet above the launch pad still counts.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? resolve?
- Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "To Mars" just means that the target of the mission is, in some meaningful sense, the planet Mars.