Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 23, 1:29 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsWill any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
Manifold MarketsUS fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
PolymarketWhat will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketSouth Korea Annual Inflation 2026
PolymarketRules
0.78 in 2022.
- Will use world bank data if available.
- I won't bet.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035 resolve?
- Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2035.
- How is Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 0.78 in 2022.