Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 23, 1:29 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsWill any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
Manifold MarketsUS fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsNext South Korea Presidential election winner?
KalshiSouth Korea exports YoY for October
KalshiRules
0.78 in 2022.
- Will use world bank data if available.
- I won't bet.
