Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine23dManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastYes 8.3%
Forecasters
109
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Mar 22, 26, 7:59 PMAug 1, 26, 10:29 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes8%
Compare venues· No
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MyriadMost active | 93% | — | $355.4 | $1.5K | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | 92% | — | — | — | 14 minutes ago |
Also available on Myriad
Russia/Ukraine ceasefire before August?
23d
6.8%
93.2%
40 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$34.8K
24h Vol$355.4
MYRIADRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.